Perhaps you’ve read in The New Republic that Pakistan is under pressure to turn up some High Value Targets (HVTs) like OBL just before we cast our ballots. Or you’ve been sent a link to that slick animated online presentation suggesting the Bushies have accepted Pakistan’s past peddling of nuclear arms as the price for Osama’s head on a platter delivered right at the height of America’s electoral feeding frenzy.
Then there’s the whole Iranian scenario: Just in time to rally the troops, or at least the uncommitted voters, Israel and the United States will stage a daring joint attack on Iran’s atomic installations.
Well, maybe. But life’s more complicated than that, I think, and also less. In my experience the real conspiracies of this world rarely have much to do with conspiracy theories. Events are driven by all sorts of erratic variables, and not Osama, nor Bush, nor John Kerry, for that matter, has it in his power to fine-tune terror or counterterror in ways that have reliably predictable political results.
To the extent bin Laden is trying, he’s failing. Remember that ultimatum he issued three months ago, offering a “truce” with European countries that pulled out of Iraq or backed away, even further, from the Bush administration? It was supposed to expire on July 15. The Europeans are so worried about it that several top counterterror officials have gone on vacation.
The Spaniards, meanwhile, have been conducting their own equivalent of the 9/11 Commission, looking into the bombings last March that killed almost 200 people. But far less attention has been paid to the terrorist plotters than to the performance of former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, who tried to blame political rivals for the crime instead of the real perps. It was Aznar’s prevarication more than terrorist intimidation that caused his party to be voted out of office.
As for Bush’s supposedly nefarious plans? Give me a break. Anyone who thinks we wouldn’t hear about the capture of Osama in days of the event, if not minutes, must think the ship of state has a lot fewer leaks than it does. And if Osama could commit a new atrocity in the U.S.A. come October, what would be his goal? To get rid of Bush? Or to keep him? Osama’s aim is a clash of civilizations, and the current administration’s policies in Iraq and Israel have contributed mightily to that cause.
Humorist Jon Carroll at the San Francisco Chronicle probably had the right approach to these conspiracy theories when he asked readers to submit their interpretations to a Guess the October Surprise Contest. This morning he revealed that many believe “Bush will somehow trigger an invasion by aliens.”
But, for all that, the real dangers that lurk ahead are no joke, and the biggest, most obvious risks are in Iraq. The transition from outright American occupation to quasi-sovereign Iraqi control over the future of the country went well for a couple of weeks, but now the situation is deteriorating again, and quickly. The interim government of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi already “has lost its momentum,” says a top Iraqi official in Baghdad. The streets it promised to make safe for Iraqis are not. American troops, meanwhile, are taking about the same number of casualties as they were before the handover.
Even in Baghdad there’s general confusion about who bears the responsibility for enforcing law and order, and who, if anyone, has the ability to do it. Fallujah and other major cities west of the capital remain no-go zones for American troops or the local forces working with them. Samarra, to the north, is just about lost as well. Many residents are fleeing what they think is a major battle to come.
And this isn’t normally fighting season, because it’s too damn hot. The average high temperature in what’s called the Sunni Triangle is about 111 degrees in July and August. Even flies don’t like to go out in the sun. But come October, the average high drops below 90, and the action picks up. Then the Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin about October 16. Last year, when Ramadan fell in November, it became by far the bloodiest month of the occupation up to that time.
So even if there were no American election in the offing, an upsurge in Iraqi violence would be likely. But since there is an election, insurgents and terrorists will do whatever they can to humiliate the president by slaughtering the troops and contractors and diplomats he sent into their midst. The insurgents can’t know–none of us can–how new atrocities will affect the voters back home. But if October gets very violent, no one should be surprised.
